Almost every observer of South Asian politics agrees
that something very significant happened in January 2015 when
Maithripala Sirisena defeated Mahinda Rajapaksa in Sri Lanka's
presidential election. For those focused on geopolitics, it symbolised
the beginning of the end of China's "elusive empire" into the Indian
Ocean - a period of uninterrupted entry of Colombo into the geo-economic
and geo-strategic orbit of Beijing. But China's future in South Asia is
not yet written and many outcomes, both positive and negative from
Indian perspective, are possible.
Heightened Chinese activities in and around Sri Lanka
has reawakened India to the importance of Colombo's strategic location.
India has been silently and helplessly watching China spreading its
wings by building port facilities, highways, and other major
infrastructure in Sri Lanka in last few years. Last year, what unsettled
India most was the sight of port calls by two Chinese submarines at a
Chinese-built terminal in Colombo.
It is precisely because of anticipated negative
publicity in India and the unanticipated change of administration in Sri
Lanka that China has been forced to address India's security concerns
in the Indian Ocean region. Had it not been so, Chinese President Xi
Jinping would not have felt the need to propose trilateral cooperation
among New Delhi, Beijing and Colombo. Sirisena recently paid a four-day
visit to China where Xi is reported to have reiterated the proposal for
three-party talks.
Sri Lanka under Rajapaksa had drifted so close to
China that made it behave indifferently about India's concerns. Sirisena
has shown great sensitivities towards India. After getting elected in
January, he chose India his first foreign destination where both
countries signed an important agreement on nuclear safety. He has
repeatedly claimed to be pursuing a balanced foreign policy that neither
upsets nor pamper any nation.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who paid a quick return
visit to Sri Lanka, has also demonstrated that his government does not
view Sri Lanka as a space of strategic opportunity: to demonstrate
Indian regional hegemony. Modi wants India and Lanka to be equal
partners in ensuring peace and prosperity in the region.
Despite recent warming of relations between New Delhi
and Colombo, India should recognise the challenges in the relationship.
Two issues that have complicated India's ties with Sri Lanka are the
'Tamil factor' in the domestic politics of Tamil Nadu and the Chinese
economic might.
Sankaran Krishna rightly mentions in his book that
"If Indian interest in Sri Lanka's domestic affairs had been dissociated
from its largely chimerical implications for Tamil Nadu, Indian advice
to Sri Lanka to resolve its affairs through greater devolution of power
to minorities, the establishment of provincial councils, and its
recognition of itself as a plural society may have found a more
receptive audience among both the Sinhalese and the Tamils."
It is a well known fact that the previous UPA
government gave unusual precedence to the domestic political
consideration of Tamil Nadu over India's national interests in Sri
Lanka. Moreover, India's lack of interest into Hambantota project as
well as its unwillingness to give military assistance to the Rajpaksa
government provided China with the godsend opportunity to make deep
inroads through its vital economic, military and diplomatic support.
Strategic perspective
Economically, India cannot match China when it comes
to investing in Sri Lanka's infrastructure projects. Over the last few
years, China invested heavily in cultivating Rajapaksa. China views Sri
Lanka from strategic perspective both because of its critical location
in the Indian Ocean and its centrality to building Xi's ambitious
Maritime Silk Road project.
The controversial Colombo Port City project is also
thought to be a vital link in the Maritime Silk Road. During Sirisena's
China visit, Xi underlined Beijing's commitment to Colombo and
emphasised the necessity of continuance of all Chinese projects in the
island nation.
Even if policymakers in India were to recognise the
merits of India-China-Sri Lanka trilateral confidence-building, this
reality must not be ignored that the two Asian giants are rising in a
complex international environment where their bilateral relationship
cannot be separated from strategic dynamics taking place in Indian Ocean
region.
Modi's recent trip to Sri Lanka, Mauritius, and
Seychelles indicates that his government will be actively deepening its
partnerships with most Indian Ocean littoral states. What Modi said in a
speech to Sri Lankan parliament during his visit to Sri Lanka
highlights the importance of Indian Ocean: "The course of the 21st
century will be determined by the currents of the Indian Ocean".
India must recognise that China will never easily let
go of the gains that it has secured in Sri Lanka. While Beijing will
continue to loom large in Sri Lanka, New Delhi's real challenge is to
rapidly consolidate its own strategic and economic partnership with
Colombo.
There is no substitute for a deft, sophisticated and
less-politicised foreign policy approach for managing India-China-Sri
Lanka trilateral relationship. The alternative is to cede the greater
initiative to China.
(The writer is Assistant Professor, Centre for Peace
and Conflict Studies Sardar Patel University of Police, Security and
Criminal Justice, Jodhpur)
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